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#reference class forecasting

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Optimism Bias Bankrupts Global Infrastructure
Psychology & Behavior

Optimism Bias Bankrupts Global Infrastructure

The planning fallacy is not a lack of competence but a cognitive blind spot. From the corridors of New Delhi to the ports of Rotterdam, the refusal to adopt an outside view transforms ambitious engineering into financial disasters.

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The Delusion of the First Deadline
Psychology & Behavior

The Delusion of the First Deadline

Megaprojects do not fail by accident; they fail by design. By analyzing the intersection of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation, we uncover why the first deadline is almost always a fiction.

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